Toronto Maple Leafs 2017 Off-Season Game Plan - Part 1

The 2017 Stanley Cup Final (SCF) has finally reached a conclusion with the Pittsburgh Penguins defeating the Nashville Predators. Pittsburgh is the first team in the cap-era to repeat as back-to-back champions and the first team since the Detroit Red Wings in 1997 and 1998 to win back-to-back Stanley Cups.

How is any of this relevant to the Toronto Maple Leafs? Well, each of those teams, Nashville and Pittsburgh, accomplished getting to the SCF in very different ways. With their number 1 centre (1C) sidelined with injury, Nashville relied on a mostly unsung group of forwards backed up with an extremely talented top-4 defence corp. While Pittsburgh, with their star defenceman sidelined with injury, relied on a star-studded forward group backed by a nondescript defence corp.

With the acquisition, prior to last season, of a number 1 goalie (Frederik Andersen) and the performance of the Leafs rookies last season, it seems like the Leafs are pretty close to being set with their goaltending and in their forward group with a potentially star-studded group. Naturally, attention would then turn to the only other area the Leafs need to address, their defence corp., and its’ perceived lack of a 1^st or 2^nd pairing right-handed D-man (RHD) to play with the top-4 D-men the Leafs currently have – Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner, and Nikita Zaitsev.

A cursory look through the defensive depth chart for the Leafs shows that there is no one in the prospect pipeline who can fill that 1^st or 2^nd pairing role next season. This means there are only two other possible avenues for the Leafs to explore in an attempt to acquire that 1^st or 2^nd pairing D-man – the Free Agent (FA) or trade markets.

This article won’t get into the options available in the FA market as they have been covered here, so that leaves the trade market.

The first step in venturing into the trade market is determining who the Leafs might be prepared to trade. What do the Leafs have that other teams might want? How about a large winger who scores somewhere between 25-30 goals and 55-60 points year after year? Or how about a veteran centre, good in the face-off circle, that can put up 15-20 goals and 45-50 points? What about a plethora of promising wingers patiently waiting in the AHL, or the Leafs’ press box, for their opportunity to shine at the NHL level? Finally, perhaps the Leafs might be prepared to part with their 1^st round pick, 17^th overall, in this year’s NHL Entry Draft?

The trading of established veterans like JVR or Tyler Bozak seems to be the most logical option, but the reality of that situation is neither of those veterans in a one for one trade is going to land the Leafs a 1^st pairing RHD. Even packaging both JVR and Tyler Bozak together in a two for one trade is not going to land the coveted 1^st pairing RHD. Could either of those players on their own land an established 2^nd pairing RHD? Not likely. How about a two for one trade, this time for that established 2^nd pairing RHD? The odds would have improved slightly but the Leafs would still need to identify a team wanting a top-6 scoring winger (isn’t that every team?) and a solid 3^rd line centre, be willing to pay them a combined $8.45 million next year, be willing to sign both players to similar or larger contracts after next season as both players are set to become Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs) at the end of next season, and be willing to trade an established 2^nd pairing RHD from their roster. I’m not saying this scenario is impossible, but the chances of this happening might only be slightly better than finding a unicorn.

Looking at the plethora of wingers the Leafs have in the AHL or junior, the simple truth of the matter is that in the Leafs’ pipeline there is no prospect, or likely any combination of prospects that could be put together to form a sufficient package that would acquire a 1^st or 2^nd pairing RHD.

Would the Leafs’ 1^st round pick in this year’s NHL Entry Draft obtain a 1^st or 2^nd pairing RHD on its’ own? Not likely.

Could the Leafs package up their 1^st round draft pick, a prospect or two, and JVR and/or Tyler Bozak to acquire a 1^st pairing RHD? Again, not very likely.

Would the above package acquire a 2^nd pairing RHD? Very likely. Would that package be an extreme over-payment on the Leafs part? Absolutely.

If the Leafs were to pay the price of the above package to acquire that 2^nd pairing RHD, not only would it create possibly two holes (JVR and T. Bozak) in their current lineup, it could also potentially cripple the Leafs ability to contend in the future by decimating the needed prospect pipeline – in effect this trade could turn into an all-or-nothing gamble on winning the Stanley Cup in the next couple years. Is this the kind of gamble current Leafs management is prepared to take? Based on their previous actions the answer would seem to be a resounding no.

OK then, what should the Leafs’ plan for the defence corp. be this off-season?

First. Keep monitoring the trade market in case a 1^st or 2^nd pairing RHD suddenly becomes available at a reasonable price. This would include speaking with the Las Vegas Golden Knights after the Expansion Draft has taken place.

Second. Fly in the face of conventional hockey wisdom, which says to always draft the “Best Player Available” (BPA), by drafting a “BPA” from the D-men in this year’s draft and patiently develop that D-man for future deployment on the Leaf blue-line.

Third. Sign Matt Hunwick to another reasonable 1 year contract as a depth or insurance option.

Fourth. Enter next season’s training camp with the idea of your current D-men prospects (Dermott, Nielsen, Valiev) and the European FA’s recently signed (Rosen and Borgman) battling it out to prove if anyone is ready to assume a 1^st or 2^nd pairing position.

It’s not the sexiest or quickest way to plug a hole in the Leafs defence corp., but it also doesn't create a hole or holes elsewhere in the Leafs’ roster. 

There is something to be said for the patient draft and develop approach when it comes to defencemen, especially when looking at Nashville’s defence corp. and how their talented 1^st and 2^nd pairings helped Nashville to reach the SCF’s.

2017 Trade Deadline - The Aftermath

The third Trade Deadline day in the multi-year rebuild of the Toronto Maple Leafs has passed, and what, if anything, has changed?

In a previous article on this site (here), a plan was put forth on how the Leafs could have approached the March 1, 2017 Trade Deadline with an eye to managing and maximizing their assets. In summary, that plan was to create a list of all the players who would be Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA’s) at the end of the 2016/2017 season and evaluate whether it made sense or was even feasible to try and trade any of those players.

This list ended up being comprised of the following players:

1. Andrew Campbell
2. Colin Greening
3. Matt Hunwick
4. Brooks Laich
5. Curtis McElhinney
6. Milan Michalek
7. Roman Polak
8. Ben Smith

Looking at the above list, it was determined that the Leafs probably might be able to trade two players from that list:

1. Roman Polak
2. Matt Hunwick

The interesting aspect of these two names is that they comprise the 3rd pairing for the Leafs and trading them would have required either bringing back similar D-men in a trade or slotting in current players in the Leafs’ organization to fill those spots.

Therefore, it was not much of a surprise that the Leafs chose not to trade either Roman Polak or Matt Hunwick, instead opting to become “buyers” and bring in depth players to try and stabilize the current roster and make it more “battle-hardened” for the stretch drive towards the playoffs. 

These were the players added to the Leafs’ roster shortly before or on Trade Deadline day:

1. Brian Boyle - 4th line Centre
2. Eric Fehr - 4th line Centre/Right Wing

As well, the Leafs also acquired the following players, prospects, and/or draft picks:

1. Steve Olesky – assigned to the AHL Marlies
2. 2017 4th round draft pick – from Pittsburgh

Leaving the Leafs system, were the following players and draft pick:

1. Byron Froese – from the AHL Marlies
2. Frank Corrado – from the AHL Marlies
3. 2017 2nd round draft pick

As can be seen, no players were moved off the Leafs’ NHL roster. It seemed that management decided to give the current group that got them to the trade deadline in the hunt for a playoff spot an opportunity to fight for the remainder of the season for that playoff spot.

The proto-typical 4th line centre (Brian Boyle) was brought in to help solidify the 4th line and a player (Eric Fehr) was added in case of injury or for playoff depth.

A 2017 2nd round draft pick was traded away but was replaced by a 4th round draft pick – not exactly a wash but at least the number of picks in the upcoming draft wasn’t diminished.

So, after all of this rather underwhelming activity what exactly did the Leafs accomplish? 

The Leafs were able to improve their current NHL roster without sacrificing another player from that roster and added depth in case of injury or for the playoffs.

Not the kind of Trade Deadline a lot of Leafs fans were looking for, but no damage, short or long-term, was done to the organization and the current Leafs roster was given a slightly better chance to compete for the playoffs.

This last aspect should not be under estimated as it gives Leafs’ management an opportunity to evaluate the current Leafs’ roster to see who among that group would warrant staying with the Leafs longer term and who it would be best to move on from this coming off-season or at the next Trade Deadline.

Toronto Maple Leafs - A Plan for the 2017 Trade Deadline and Beyond

It’s that time of year again. The 2017 Trade Deadline is looming and the Toronto Maple Leafs, like all NHL teams, must decide on a plan for how they want to approach this particular trade deadline. Before each of the past two trade deadlines, 2015 and 2016, I wrote an article (2015 and 2016) with my suggested plan for how the Leafs should have approached those respective trade deadlines. In a nutshell, my suggestion was to split the respective Leafs’ rosters approaching each of those trade deadlines into two lists. The first list (List “A”) would contain each player over the age of 25 and the second list (List “B”) would contain all the players under the age of 26. Each of the past two years I suggested the Leafs find new teams, with very few exceptions, for all the players on each List “A”. A deceptively simple plan and one the Leafs actually followed pretty closely.

But now that most of the List “A” players from the past two seasons have been cleared from the roster, the plan for the 2017 Trade Deadline must be refined into a more focused approach on how to continue to improve the Leafs into perennial Stanley Cup contenders – simply jettisoning players over the age of 25 is no longer a viable plan on its own.

For example, if we created a list of the players from the 2016/2017 Toronto Maple Leafs organization who were over the age of 25 it would look like this:

Table 1

As can be seen, this plan would yield a list of 15 players.

Revising that list to keep the players the Leafs might realistically want to keep until the end of the 2016/2017 season would yield this list of 7 players:.

Table 2

The Leafs might be willing to trade three names on this list (Tyler Bozak, Leo Komarov, and JVR) if they were to receive very attractive offers for them, but I don’t think the Leafs are actively shopping any of these three leading up to the 2017 Trade Deadline.

If we revise the list from Table 1 above to only include players who will be Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs) at the end of the 2016/2017 season, we are left with List “A” below:

Table 3

This List “A” could be split into two further lists, one for players currently on the Leafs’ roster and one for players currently on the Marlies’ roster:

Table 4

Table 5

For the GM’s of the other 29 NHL teams, I don’t think there is anyone on either list that jumps out as a “must-have”, though there could be some interest again this year in Roman Polak and perhaps even Matt Hunwick.

I am not going to speculate on what the relative value of those 2 players might be and what exactly the return would be for each, there are plenty of other sites that will do that, but let's assume that it would most likely be some combination of “prospects” and/or picks numbering around 1-2.

The rest of the players have all passed through waivers at some point this season so are unlikely to receive any kind of offers, though teams might show some interest in Colin Greening and/or Brooks Laich if they are looking for veteran leadership depth for the playoffs and the Leafs were willing to retain salary and accept a very late round conditional draft pick.

So, where does that leave us? Quite frankly, with a pretty underwhelming opportunity for the Leafs to accumulate prospects and/or draft picks to help keep the prospect cupboard stocked.

At the same time, there is a looming event coming this off-season – the Expansion Draft for the Vegas Golden Knights – that could potentially throw a “monkey wrench” into the plans of the Leafs’ and the other 29 NHL teams. To understand this, we need to have a closer look at the upcoming Expansion Draft.

There are various rules associated with this Expansion Draft, the most notable being:

1. The requirement for each team to make available, or expose, two forwards and one defenseman who meet what is called the “40/70” rule. The “40/70” rule relates to the number of games a player must have played in the 2016/2017 season (40) or combined over the 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 seasons (70).
2. The requirement for each team to make available a goalie who is under contract for at least the 2017/2018 season or is a Restricted Free Agent (RFA) at the end of the 2016/2017 season.
3. The requirement that exposed players must not be UFAs at the end of the 2017 season.
4. Each team can protect 7 Forwards, 3 Defensemen, and 1 Goalie (3F/3D/1G) OR a combination of 8 Forwards and/or Defensemen and 1 Goalie (8FD/1G).

Looking at their current roster, it seems to make the most sense for the Leafs to protect 7 Forwards, 3 Defensemen, and 1 Goalie. Under this scenario, the Leafs are able to protect most of the players they likely want to protect but that doesn’t mean the Leafs are out of the woods concerning the Expansion Draft.

A closer examination of the current roster shows that the only players the Leafs have who currently meet the first three requirements are players the Leafs most likely want to protect.

Table 6

Looking at an expanded list of forwards, there are four players (Byron Froese, Seth Griffith, Brooks Laich and Ben Smith) from which the Leafs might be able to sign two players to contract extensions for the 2017/2018 season so as to be able to meet the “40/70” rule for forwards.

Table 7

Looking at a list of defensemen, the Leafs do not have a problem finding someone to meet the “40/70” rule as there are more defensemen eligible for the Expansion Draft than the Leafs can protect, assuming they use the 7F/3D/1G option.

Table 8

Looking at the goalies, the Leafs have a pair who meet the requirement for goalies, Antoine Bibeau and Garret Sparks.

Table 9

If a complete list of players from the Leafs’ organization that are eligible for the upcoming Expansion Draft is built, it would look like this:

Table 10

I have highlighted the players, with a yellow question mark (“?”) in their respective ‘Protect’ box, as the most likely to be the list from which the Vegas Golden Knights select. It is highly unlikely that Vegas would select Joffrey Lupul as he has missed the 2016/2017 season with an injury. For any player listed as a UFA, Vegas could simply wait until July 1st and sign them as a Free Agent.

From the three forwards with yellow question marks (“?”) in their ‘Protect’ boxes, the Leafs will be able to still protect one of them if they so choose. Will the Leafs protect Kerby Rychel, Brendan Leipsic, or Josh Leivo? At the moment, my gut-feeling leans towards the Leafs protecting Josh Leivo.

From the three defensemen with yellow question marks (“?”) in their ‘Protect’ boxes, the Leafs will be able to still protect one of them. Will the Leafs protect Alexey Marchenko, Martin Marincin, or Connor Carrick? At the moment, my gut-feeling leans towards the Leafs protecting Connor Carrick.

From the two goalies with yellow question marks (“?”) in their ‘Protect’ boxes, the Leafs could lose one of them as they can only protect 1 Goalie and they will most definitely protect Frederik Andersen.

If my gut-feeling concerning the two players the Leafs might choose to protect is correct, the Leafs are most likely to lose one of these players in the upcoming Expansion Draft:

Table 11

Losing any one of these players is not a desired result, but as only one of the players is currently on the Leafs’ NHL roster (Martin Marincin), the Leafs find themselves in excellent position heading into the upcoming 2017 Trade Deadline and Expansion Draft since if the Leafs make no further moves between now and the Expansion Draft, the worst-case scenario for the Leafs would be losing a player from their NHL roster that they would consider their 4th or 5th best defenseman.

So, at this point where does all this leave the Leafs?

As the days to the 2017 Trade Deadline count down, the Leafs are left with some combination of these two options:

1. Trade any or all of Tyler Bozak, Leo Komarov, or JVR.
2. Trade any or all of Matt Hunwick, Roman Polak, Brooks Laich, Colin Greening, or any of the other UFA’s.

After the 2017 Trade Deadline has passed, the Leafs could then look to meet their “40/70” requirement for exposed players by signing contract extensions with two of these four players – Byron Froese, Seth Griffith, Brooks Laich, and Ben Smith – or face whatever penalty(s) the NHL chooses to levy for not meeting the “40/70” requirement.

After their excellent work the past two trade deadlines, it will be interesting to see how successful Leafs management will be in continuing to improve the Leafs team leading up to and through Trade Deadline day on March 1, 2017.